In theory, any of the golfers in the 132-player field at the RBC Heritage Presented by Boeing have an equal chance of winning when the first tee shot is hit at 7:10 a.m. Thursday, but the reality is some have a better shot than others.
Predicting a champion is no easy task, but we’ll take a crack — or 10 — at it. Here are the PGA Tour stars we think have the best shot at hoisting the gentleman golfer trophy, donning the tartan jacket, and taking home the $1.242 million first prize at the end of the best week of the year on Hilton Head Island.
Dustin Johnson: The narrative surrounding South Carolina native Johnson’s nine-year absence from the Palmetto State’s only PGA Tour stop was that his game didn’t translate well to Harbour Town’s tight fairways and tiny greens, but he put that notion to rest when he carded three rounds in the 60s and tied for 16th last year.
Bryson DeChambeau: The PGA Tour’s mad scientist has two top-five finishes in three starts here, including a tie for third last year, and the course suits his old-school approach to the game.
Si Woo Kim: The 23-year-old South Korean has serious game, as evidenced by his Players Championship win in 2017, and he seems to enjoy playing at Harbour Town. After a tie for 14th in his Heritage debut in 2016, he was runner-up last year after losing to Satoshi Kodaira on the third playoff hole.
Webb Simpson: A North Carolina native, Simpson seems to feel at home at Harbour Town. After missing the cut in his debut here in 2009, he has hung around for the weekend in his last eight Heritage starts, including a runner-up finish in 2013 and a tie for fifth last year.
Russell Knox: Call this one a sleeper pick if you’d like. Knox has made the cut in all five of his Heritage starts, and his scoring average of 69.4 is the best among anyone who has played at least 12 tournament rounds here. That includes a bunch of guys with multiple tartan jackets in their closets.
Matt Kuchar: A fan favorite, “KUUUUUUCH” has made the cut in his last 14 starts at the Heritage (his only missed cut came in his debut in 2003). He has five top-10 finishes here, including his win in 2014, and got off to a great start this season.
Patrick Cantlay: In two previous starts here, the UCLA alumnus has tied for third and seventh and failed to break par only once in eight rounds. The only question is whether he will be able to bounce back so quickly after briefly holding the lead Sunday at the Masters before sliding to a tie for ninth.
Xander Schauffele: Schauffele is coming into his own as one of the PGA Tour’s brightest young stars. His Heritage debut got off to a roaring start last year with back-to-back 68s before he faltered a bit on the weekend and slid to a tie for 32nd. Still a solid showing and perhaps a sign of a future tartan jacket owner.
Branden Grace: The 2016 Heritage champion skipped last year’s event following the birth of a child, but he is surely happy to be back at Harbour Town, where he his worst finish in three starts is a tie for 11th and he’s failed to shoot par or better only once in 12 rounds.
Jordan Spieth: Although he hasn’t played the Heritage since 2015, Spieth had a solid run in his first three starts here, finishing in ties for ninth, 12th, and 11th from 2013-15. Spieth hasn’t quite been himself recently, but there’s no doubt he has the game to win here.