In a week marked by blowouts — 10 of the 11 games featuring local teams were decided by 21 points or more — it’s difficult to glean anything we didn’t already know, so it might seem like this week’s edition of Five Things I Think I Know isn’t exactly tip-toeing up to the precipice.
This week was all about reinforcing our previously held beliefs, which area powerhouses May River and Thomas Heyward did with shutout victories. But there was some divergence from the obvious narratives, like Hilton Head Prep’s Stone McDonald leading the Dolphins to a big win in his season debut, Hilton Head High laying a molly-whopping on Christ Church, and Beaufort Academy putting it all together after an 0-3 start.
Here are Five Things I Think I Know after Week 5 of the high school football season.
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1. Star quarterbacks are important. I wrote in this space earlier this season that Hilton Head Prep was no longer a one-man show led by Stone McDonald. I still believe that’s true, but we’ve seen just how integral McDonald is to the Dolphins’ success. Backup Sam Liberatore led HHP to a win in Week 1, and third-stringer Tristan Bonomo nearly did the same last week, but the Dolphins are a different team with McDonald in the mix. No longer can defenses key on Tommy Stauffer, and no longer can they ignore the deep threat of Tyrone Calloway. McDonald made big plays with his arms and his legs to lead the Dolphins to a much-needed win at John Paul II on Friday, and it was clear his conditioning isn’t all the way back yet. With McDonald at the helm, the Dolphins should be competitive in all their remaining games and poised to peak at the right time.
2. According to the transitive property, Thomas Heyward is unstoppable. Yes, I know the transitive property is a poor method for predicting the outcome of sporting events, but indulge the statistician in me for a moment. The Rebels haven’t played all of the other top-five teams in SCISA Class 1A, but they do have common opponents with all of them, and the results paint a pretty picture for THA. The Rebels won by 44 against John Paul II, which played No. 2 Carolina Academy within 19; they won by 24 against Hilton Head Christian Academy, which beat No. 3 Bethesda Academy by 17; and they won 42-23 against No. 4 Pee Dee Academy, which smashed No. 5 Dillon Christian 35-0 on Friday. That doesn’t mean the Rebels couldn’t lose, or even that they won’t be challenged, but it shows they are the clear-cut favorite to repeat as state champs.
3. The Seahawks are who we thought they were. But what is that, exactly? A talented team with little margin for error. Hilton Head High has 27 players on the varsity roster, which means the depth chart is awfully shallow. Missing just one player due to injury or disciplinary action can be a huge blow, especially if he’s playing on both sides of the ball, like many of the Seahawks’ standouts are asked to do. They also seem to be an emotional bunch that thrives off success but has difficulty staying up when things don’t go well. Right now they’re riding high, and if they can win a third straight next week against New Hampstead, they’ll have a ton of momentum going into the wide-open Region 7-4A slate, which could be dangerous.
4. This week is going to make or break Whale Branch’s season. The Warriors have enjoyed their most favorable non-region schedule in years — with an assist from Hurricane Dorian, which gave them a reprieve from facing May River — and they took care of business. Whale Branch is sitting at 4-0 for the first time since 2011 and has steadily improved each week. Now comes the region slate that is basically the SEC West of SCHSL Class 2A. Three of the five teams in Region 5-2A — including the eighth-ranked Warriors — are ranked in the top 10 in the state, and this week’s opponent, Woodland, received votes last week. With No. 2 Barnwell and No. 3 Bamberg-Ehrhardt at the top of the heap, Friday’s loser is likely looking at the No. 4 seed in the playoffs and a trip to face either No. 6 Oceanside Collegiate or No. 7 Timberland in the first round of the playoffs. On the other hand, the No. 3 seed from Region 5-2A matches up with the runner-up from Region 7-2A, which is one of the weaker regions in the state.
5. All is not lost for the area’s winless and one-win teams. As we approach the midway point of the season, three area teams are winless — Beaufort High, Battery Creek, and John Paul II — and three more have one win — Bluffton, Ridgeland-Hardeeville, and Beaufort Academy — but there is no need for any of them to despair. The Dolphins and Jaguars have the benefit of playing in the same region, which means one of them will have to win at least one region game, and both should have an above-average chance of picking up another win over Lake Marion. In fact, I would expect both to beat the Gators, meaning both would make the playoffs — one as the No. 3 seed. The Golden Warriors are 0-5, but they showed vast improvement in Friday’s 34-26 loss to Hilton Head Prep and have very winnable games the next two weeks at Orangeburg Prep and Northwood Academy. Winning just one of the two would make them a playoff team and give first-year coach Chris Myers something to build on. Beaufort Academy got off to a rocky start last season, too, and Mark Clifford had the Eagles humming en route to a SCISA 8-man state title by the end of Octobor. And the Bobcats and Eagles are going to follow up extremely challenging non-region schedules with a four-team Region 7-4A round robin in which the favorites are anyone’s guess.
That’s an awfully long way of saying there’s a whole lotta season left, and most of what we’ve already seen has no bearing on the postseason.